Let’s take a quick look back at the markets I highlighted this week as we head into the weekend.
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My bias was to the downside, to sell rallies down to 1.15. Price hit that target level this morning and kept on going.
Price has indeed made its way to the underside of the box I drew in. Time to sell? I’m reluctant for two reasons: The market will be closing soon, and if this still looks like a sell next week, there will be time to get on. The second reason is that the chart looks messy on the 4-hour.
The EURJPY fell off a cliff. If you sold rallies on the 4-hour chart, there were about 200 pips in it. With price still looking so bearish, no reason not to hold part of your position for a possible move to 125.50. That’s another target hit.
The Loonie bounced. I was in two minds about this, but it looks like USD won out in the end. I want to see price close up in the box I have drawn on the daily timeframe, and then I’ll start looking for longs.
Gold still looks bearish to me. I’m holding a small short and watching the bears battle to challenge the $1200 level. A stab lower still seems likely to me.
Another pair I could only see going lower was GBPJPY. This pair wasn’t on my watchlist, but I was asked to take a look at it. My first target of 142.00 was hit quickly, and price is still falling.
One could argue that price closed above the range yesterday, the first sign of a breakout I was looking for. Since then, price has blasted off, and the breakout seems confirmed. I’m sitting on my hands for now though. If today’s candle closes in a very bullish fashion, we’ll have time to trade more USD strength for weeks to come. If price collapses today, we’re back in the box. Let’s give this one time to mature and show its hand, shall we?
This is what I saw on the DAX on Wednesday – I was interested in a sell, but it wasn’t confirmed for me. It still isn’t. Let’s see where price closes today.
Mind the gap though – some of the gaps in these indices charts are big enough to drive a school bus through.
I hope you had a profitable week. Shall we do some more next week?