Snapshot | XAUUSD, EURUSD, GBPUSD, USDJPY and USDCAD

XAUUSD

The big move on GOLD on Friday saw a strong close above the recent highs ($1295).

I’d like to see $1295 retested (meaning a big old bounce at $1295) to go long to $1310.

At $1310 – $1315 we reach the underside of a consolidation box that kept price contained from January to May last year. If we see a close inside this box, I’ll look for more upside to $1350.

EURUSD

What a dog show.

Consider the range that price spent most of last week in (blue box). Then you get a break to the downside (1), a massive pin-bar fading the break and enticing the bulls (2), which gets destroyed a few hours later by a new break lower (3). Only to be demolished with more breaks up north at 4 and 5.

Now that EURUSD has gobbled up scores of stops all around, it should be free to make its real move. Considering that the medium term picture appears to be USD weakness, my expectation is for price to move higher. No good entries yet, too messy for this trader.

GBPUSD

Cable blasted passed the lower trendline I’ve drawn in (not without first hinting that it wanted to go lower) and seems set to test the 1.3300 area. The aggressiveness of the current move is parabolic – price is accelerating as it moves up. These parabolics never last. However, while price is going up, blindly selling seems senseless to me.

I’d like to see one of the following before I short.

a) A big old rejection candle off 1.3300.
b) A close below the latest parabolic trendline

For the intraday trader, buy the dips until that stops working, right?

USDJPY

Price has rejected the 110.00 zone, but it’s a bit half-hearted. I think more coiling is on the cards, inside the wedge I’ve drawn in. A break to either side with a retest is what I’m after.

USDCAD

The Loonie looked like it wanted to retrace a bit higher than it did before falling. No matter, the structure now is quite bearish. It should come as no surprise that I’d like to see price retest the underside of the channel for a short trade.

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