Price is in an uptrend, starting in late September. It’s hard to argue otherwise. The lows marked 1-4 trend higher, and the highs I’ve shaded in green also trend higher.
And yet here I am, considering a sell. Forgive me; it’s a very early idea.
Notice the lows on the way up. The first “touch”, marked “1” doesn’t even reach the trendline. The second one wicks down and comes close, but its right back up again. The third one gets a bit closer and again, straight back up. The fourth one spends a bit of time lower and then off it goes.
Price is back at the trendline again, soon after the most recent touch. And the price seems to be hanging around a bit.
What am I saying? Simple – buyers are becoming less and less enthusiastic when picking up the lows, meaning that the trend might be starting to reverse.
Now, of course, there are many counter-arguments here. You could draw the trendline differently. The higher-high, higher-low structure is still in play, and the CAD’s enslavement to oil prices all play a part.
So how do we put all this info together? Easy, we wait for the break and retest (if I am right):
A decent trendline break does more than violate the trendline – it also takes out the low, invalidating the higher-low structure.
If you shorted the EURUSD at 1.1450 (I didn’t have a trade), you’re looking fairly good right now. If you’re waiting for a potential long down at 1.1300, I think you’re also on to something.
If you’re looking at this chart with no positions on and you’re thinking of jumping on a short or a long, I think you’re going to get burned. Every week I get asked about the EURUSD, so here it is: I think unless you’re in already, stay out until price gets somewhere important and does something tradable.
I’m interested in a short on the EURNZD, playing off the 1.6700 level.
We saw 1.6700 provide significant support throughout much of 2017. And then in six weeks, price fell a whopping 1300 pips back down to this vital zone from the highs back in early October.
Is price bouncing here, or is it consolidating before another push lower? I’m going to let the channel I’ve drawn in decide for me. If price starts closing above the upper double blue trendlines, the short is off the table for me. Alternatively, if price remains in the channel-structure and eventually breaks down lower, I’ll be looking for a short down to 1.6600.
At 1.6600, the process repeats itself, and I’ll be looking for signs of continued weakness to trade even lower.