Friday’s strong NFP numbers have pushed the EURUSD back down to the 1.1530 level.
Bounce here or fail and fall? We don’t know just yet.
A clear trading opportunity presents if price manages a daily close below 1.1530 or so – that would suggest more downside to come. I would look to short a retest of 1.1530 from below.
Alternatively, if price makes its way back to 1.1700 and does the breakout & bounce thing up there, we could look at the August dip as a false break/liquidity suck, and play the long side just as effectively.
I think Cable is coming to a point. Literally.
Friday’s candle and the fact that price has (mostly) been moving lower, suggest that the downside break is more likely.
I’ll take either direction. Give me a decent retest, somewhere sensible to put my stops and trade on.
The Loonie broke out of the channel I mentioned a couple of weeks ago and has managed a half-hearted retest (black arrow).
The structure still looks bullish to me – but price needs to get moving soon, or I lose interest. I think the best way to trade any long continuation would be only when price closes above the spot I have marked in point 1. In other words, it needs to clear the mini-consolidation box it’s carved out.
Secondly, I think another retest of the upper channel line is likely. One could look to buy up on that retest.
Important: if price manages to close back inside the channel, my bullish bias disappears just as quickly.
The Aussie is getting a walloping.
If you like to catch falling knives, this one is for you. You better have a good hand surgeon though.
If you prefer to trade along with the trend, you might look to short on a retest of the darker trendline I’ve added – somewhere around the 0.7200 region, or just below. A close above 0.72 would suggest a more sustained move high, but until price manages to put in some higher highs and higher lows, this trader remains bearish.