Weekly Watchlist | Snapshot | [10-14 July 2017]

This week we’re spending 30 seconds or less on each featured pair. Here it goes!

EURUSD

The shared pair behaved as expected last week, retracing and then rebounding back to 1.1400. If only it had managed a deeper retrace down 1.1290, we could be more confident of its next moves.

Summary: If price starts closing back up above 1.1430, next stop should be 1.1600. A retest of the supporting trendline (and maybe even 1.1290) might be on the cards first though.

My plan: Wait patiently. Sorry, that’s all there is to it right now.

USDJPY

*A blow-off top is an expert move that suckers traders into early long positions (and then stops them out), while simultaneously scaring those who want to go short into pulling their orders, thus missing out on the sell.

I’ve been harping on about the bullish structure in the Yen pairs (Yen weakness folks) for weeks now (and profiting nicely from the EURJPY move, thanks very much), but things are about to come to a head. The USDJPY is facing a massive resistance test at 114.50 this week.

I think price is going to bust through and keep going up.

Summary: If you’re a professional knife-catcher, turn this chart upside down, and you’ll have a falling market to catch. All you need to do is place a sell order at 114.50, and hope like mad price turns around. I, on the other hand, am going to be waiting for price to convincingly break above 114.50 and then look for a long trade.

My plan: Wait for the LONG to set up. If price sets up a reversal signal at 114.50, I will look silly, but also happily sell.

GBPAUD

A lovely reversal candle printed on the GBPAUD daily chart on Friday suggesting a move lower to 1.6720. A wise trader takes Friday’s NFP moves with a pinch of salt, so I’m not going short just yet.

Summary: Could the ‘NFP inspired’ sell-off on this pair simply be faded today (i.e., price will go back up)? Yes. If price manages to stick near the lows of Friday, game-on.

My plan: Tomorrow, after the Asian session, if the bears still look to be in control, I’ll be looking to go short. Minor support comes in basically where we are at right now, beware.

NZDUSD

I’m still bullish on this pair. Contrast price’s behaviour back in February of this year (and aeon ago for most Forex traders, I admit). Price wick’d up well into 0.7300 and then fell, as any decent, self-respecting reversal should do.

That’s not what we see now, is it? Price half-heartedly tested 0.7300, and now it’s just hovering some 30-50 pips lower. No reversal. Where are the sellers?

Summary: I still want to go long on a daily close above 0.7340. I think price is stalking 0.7300 and should bounce back up any day now.

My plan: Let’s be clear here, I am not long yet. Here is why folks:

If sitting through all these wild swings (with your money on the line) is something you’re into, you need to get your head checked. So let’s wait for the bulls to win out, and then go long, shall we?

A close below 0.7240 on the daily timeframe would probably prove me entirely wrong about the pair, so there is that too.

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