This week I’m highlighting eight markets that show profit potential, in a 30-second-each overview. Let’s get to it.
Last week, I wrote about the pin-bar that had formed on the daily chart, and how I did not see it as a good reversal signal. So far, I’ve been proved neither wrong nor right. I suspect we will have our answer soon. However, if I was short, I would be concerned.
Price is being actively compressed between the trendline I have drawn in (capping the downside) and horizontal resistance at 0.80. If we see a daily close above 0.80, I believe the tip of the pin-bar will be challenged. On the other hand, if we see a convincing close below the trendline, the bears will likely have won out.
Trade idea: Just wait a short while traders – things are coming to a head. We’ll have a good idea soon enough as to where the opportunity lies in this pair.
I think the longer term downtrend in the USDJPY might be over. Friday’s candle saw a very strong test of the 110.75 – 111.00 level, with price closing against that level, but well off the highs. We’ve opened the week above 111.00 and I’m interested in more upside.
Trade idea: The 111.00 – 110.75 zone needs to be tested from above. I’d like to see a retest and bounce off that zone to go long, targeting 114.00, some 300 pips away.
Last week was Cable’s best week in two years. I think there is more to come. Back in January this year, after the candle marked by “1” had printed, I said that I believed we’d seen the bottom in the GBPUSD. I stand by that prediction.
Trade idea: I’d like to see a retest of the 1.3300 level. I think price will drift down there (even if it takes a few weeks. At 1.3300, I will be looking for opportunities to buy. First target around 1.3840 (560 pips), longer-term targets around 1.4600, some 1300 pips away.
The Dragon put in a huge day on Friday, a move I, unfortunately, did not catch. I did ride the EURJPY however, so no complaints! What’s next for the pair? While I hate to say a market is “oversold” or “overbought” at any time (because that’s just a cognitive bias rearing its ugly head), you’re not going to convince me to take a long anytime soon. My reason has little to do with what it did last week.
Let’s take more than 30-seconds and unpack this chart.
I have a zone of resistance drawn at about 152.30, about 80 pips higher than price managed on Friday. I think price is going to this level, i.e., I think it’s going to go more up before it heads down. So why not buy? Scared? Biased? Neither. My concern always is around risk, and the question is, where would I put my stop-losses to give this trade the room it needs to hit target? The most recent swing low is arguably at 145.10. If I bought above Friday’s high and targeted 152.30, with stops below 145.10, I would be risking $1 to make $0.11. No.
Trade idea: I’d like to see price tag 152.30 and pick up a whole bunch of sellers. Yep, I am keen on the short down to 147.50. At 147.50 however, I’m very keen on a long but will also wait for a bounce.
The Swissy is a mess and I feel for you if you’ve been trading it. When price does what it’s been doing, I stay well out until a clear direction presents itself.
That might be what is finally happening now. That’s a big “might”. Price broke above the capping trendline last week and is retesting the trendline as you read this. If we get a hard bounce here, we may have a long opportunity. A close below the trendline and support at 0.9440 will be challenged. I’ve marked the pin-bar at “1” and the second bounce we saw at “2”. You’ll note that price went lower than the pin-bar (reconfirming it as a failed reversal signal) taking out a whole lot of stops down there. You better believe that if price closes below the trendline, it’s going to take out stops below “2” again.
The bounce we saw on the Loonie a few days ago looked like a bit of profit-taking to me then, and still does. Price appears to be carving out an upward sloping channel, which is a continuation signal for the overall bearish move.
Trade idea: Wait for the breakdown, and short this sucker to support at 1.2000.
I like the AUDJPY where it is right now for a short. We’d be selling a double-top.
Trade idea: We need to see the bears come out to play. A big bearish candle today sets us up for a short opportunity down to 86.00
Gold is making its way down to $1295.
Trade idea: I’d like to buy a bounce off…you guess it…$1295, to target $1250